What changed
GLP-1 households buy 32% of US food and beverage units; spend shifts to protein, portions and drugstores
When
Circana webinar October 22, 2026; reported November 6, 2026; September 2026 panel data
Who it affects
Food, beverage, snack, supplement and wellness brands selling in grocery, drugstore and online
What to do
Check category exposure, test smaller portions, lead listings with protein per serving

Key takeaways

  • GLP-1 households now buy 32% of US food and beverage units, and Circana projects 40% by 2030 if use keeps rising.
  • Protein snacks, portion meals and drugstores gain; salads, alcohol and ecommerce lose in year two of treatment.
  • Lead listings with protein per serving, test smaller packs, and never make drug claims.

How GLP-1 grocery spending grew

  1. 17% of homes report someone has used a GLP-1

  2. Circana: 23% of homes, 35% of units projected by 2030

  3. Receipt panel: 30% current users, 32% of units

  4. Circana GLP-1 Unlocked webinar

  5. Findings published; 2030 projection now 40%

What Circana found

Circana's Daniel Joyner and Sally Lyons Wyatt presented the findings in the webinar "GLP-1 Unlocked: The Next Phase of Consumer and Retail Transformation," which Circana lists with an October 22, 2026 date. The Shelby Report published the numbers on November 6. Thirty percent of US households now report a current GLP-1 user, and 37% say someone in the home has used one, against 17% in 2024. Circana's own November 2025 release put user households at 23%.

Before treatment, these households spent about 8% more than nonusers on food and beverages (an index of 108). After treatment starts, their index falls 2.5 points in year one and 1.9 points in year two. Joyner's framing is that this is reallocation, not simply buying less food: of 301 subcategories, 81 gained in year one and 117 in year two.

Winners and losers by category

The figures below are index point changes against each household's own pre-treatment baseline, in year two of treatment unless stated.

  • Winning: refrigerated weight control and nutritional drinks and powders (+84.2), pork rinds (+16.1), jerky (+12.4), nutrition and health bars (+12.4 in year one), refrigerated lunches (+11.6), shelf-stable pasta meals (+11.1), microwave dinners (+10.5), cherries (+17.7).
  • Coming back: candy (+5.7) and frozen desserts (+5.3) fell at first, then turned positive. Joyner points to smaller portions that still satisfy.
  • Losing: salads (-14.6), total alcohol (-10.2, though wine turned positive), tuna (-5.2), shredded and chunk cheese, and water.
  • Health aisle: weight control liquids and powders (+26.6) and stomach remedies (+8.5). About 7 in 10 user homes reported a side effect in the past three months.

The detail most coverage skips: the channel shift

For online sellers, the channel numbers matter most. GLP-1 households' drugstore spend rose 2.7 points in year one and 6.6 in year two, while ecommerce spend fell 7.1 points in year two. Grocery slipped 1.9 then 1.0, and convenience fell 8.5 in year one. Circana names Walgreens, Walmart and Target as retailers building GLP-1 collections and support pages. Amazon is not broken out, so treat the ecommerce figure as a warning to test, not a measured Amazon result.

Circana also found 48% of homes that stopped the drug are at least somewhat likely to restart within a year, so Wyatt calls stopping a pause rather than an exit.

GLP-1 households, September 2026

32%of food and beverage units
30%of homes have a current user
+6.6drugstore spend index, year two
-7.1ecommerce spend index, year two
Source: Circana via The Shelby Report, November 2026

So what: the money math

A category's exposure is roughly the share of units GLP-1 homes buy times their index change. Worked example, illustrative numbers: a salad kit brand sells $100,000 a month. If its buyers mirror the 32% share and that group's index falls 14.6 points, sales drop about 4.7% (0.32 times 14.6%), or $4,700 a month and about $56,000 a year. A jerky brand at the same size would gain about 4.0% (0.32 times 12.4%), or $4,000 a month. That swing compounds as Circana's projected share climbs toward 40% by 2030, which Wyatt calls a conditional outlook, not a guarantee.

  • Protein per bite and portion size now decide which side of this shift you land on.
  • Online spend from this group fell in year two, so a pure online brand needs to earn it back with listings and pack sizes.

What sellers should do

Start with the categories above and your own search data:

  • Brand manager: in Amazon Brand Analytics, track search frequency rank for terms like "high protein", "single serve" and "small portion" in your category. Metric: rank trend over 13 weeks.
  • Product lead: test a smaller pack or single-serve variation of your best seller. Metric: unit session percentage against the full-size ASIN.
  • Listing owner: lead the title and first bullet with grams of protein and calories per serving, and add a nutrition image. Our Amazon listing optimization guide covers the order. Metric: conversion rate.
  • Ads manager: build a Sponsored Products campaign on protein and portion queries, bid from margin, and cut waste. Metric: ACoS against break-even, set up as in our Amazon PPC management approach.
  • Compliance owner: never claim a food or supplement works with, replaces or treats GLP-1 drugs. Check our Amazon dietary supplement policy guide. Metric: zero listing suppressions.
  • Channel lead: ask Walmart and Target category teams about their GLP-1 collections. Metric: items accepted into a collection.

This month, for food and wellness brands

  • Track protein and portion search terms
  • Test a single-serve pack
  • Lead bullets with protein per serving
  • Bid on protein queries from margin
  • Remove any GLP-1 drug claims
  • Ask Walmart and Target about collections

When this does not apply

Circana's numbers are survey and receipt panel results for food, beverage and health aisles; it gives no panel size in the coverage, and it does not report Amazon on its own. Index points measure change against a household's own past, not market share. If your buyers are mostly young, non-user households, your exposure will be smaller than the 32% average.

Where PPC Spider helps

PPC Spider is a marketplace agency for brands selling on Amazon and other marketplaces. SpiderOS monitors bids, budgets, search terms and stock, and sets target ACoS from margin after fees. Start with a free Amazon audit, and follow the ecommerce marketplace news channel.

Sources

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